Background: Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding(AUGIB) is a common emergency, with 10% linked to varices¹, requiring swift evaluation. Methods: Prospective multi-center study (3 May–2 July 2022) of adults (>16) with AUGIB in 152 UK hospitals. Results: Of 4228 AUGIB cases undergoing endoscopy, 10% (417/4228) were noted to have varices(90% oesophageal, 16% gastric, and 2% duodenal). Median age was 59 yrs and 80%(335) were new admissions. At presentation, 76%(316) had known chronic liver disease (Child-Pugh categories: A:1%, B: 48%, C: 12%.), 13%(55) were on antiplatelets and 16%(68) on anticoagulants. At presentation, 35%(146) had a history of previous AUGIB, 45%(187) were on non-selective beta-blocker prophylaxis and 24%(100) were on a variceal band ligation programme. Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) stratified patients into 1% low-risk (GBS 0-1), 18% medium-risk (2-6), 51% higher-risk (7-11), and 30% very high-risk (≥12). For pre-endoscopy management: 68%(284) received PPI, 64%(268) vasopressors (98% terlipressin, 2% octreotide) and 55%(230) antibiotics. Endotracheal intubation for endoscopy was required for 33%(136) and admission under critical care for 18%(76). Time to endoscopy from presentation: 0-12 hrs:34%, 12-24 hrs:25%, and >24 hrs:30%. Stigmata of recent bleeding observed in 72%(300) – 41% blood in the upper GI tract and 62% high risk markings on varices. Variceal therapy applied in 66%(277 – 93% banding, 11% injection therapy), Danis stent 2%(7) and Sengstaken tube 4%(15). 17% (72) had evidence of further in-patient bleeding after index endoscopy. 26%(109) needed >1 endoscopy during inpatient stay, and 2%(8) underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt. 66%(277) were transfused ≥1 packed red blood cells, 15%(64) platelets, and 20%(83) fresh frozen plasma. Median length of stay was 7days(IQR 4-1) and in-hospital mortality was 13%(56). In a multi-variable logistic model assessing predictors of rebleeding and mortality (Fig), significant factors for rebleeding included use of pre-endoscopic vasopressors (OR=2.49,95%CI:1.59-3.88), pre-endoscopic antibiotics (OR=0.4,95%CI:0.28-0.59) and presence of endoscopic stigmata (OR=6.89,95%CI:5.11-9.30). For mortality, the significant factors were very high-risk GBS (OR=4.83,95%CI:2.71-24.09), presence of endoscopic stigmata (OR=3.8,95%CI:2.82-138.72) and the use of endotherapy (OR=0.04,95%CI:0.001-0.53). Conclusions: Pre-endoscopic vasopressors were associated with increased risk of rebleeding, while pre-endoscopic antibiotics with decreased risk. Endoscopic stigmata was significantly associated with both rebleeding and mortality, with endotherapy a crucial influencer for reducing mortality. These findings offer valuable insights for risk stratification and guide appropriate therapeutic interventions in managing AUGIB with varices as per international guidelines.
1. Hearnshaw et al Gut 2011

Predictors of Rebleeding and Mortality

Paul Davies

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